Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 8 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 2, 2017


Monday, October 30, 2017 Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 8:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-115 Denver Broncos Pick Title: Mike's 9 Star MNF Right Side (LOSS) The first thing we do is throw out all the meaningless stats for this rivalry. Second, I believe the absence of Kansas City S Eric Berry (lost for the year) has been underplayed with this posted number. Even though the Chiefs come in @ 5-2 SU, much of those wins were early & with a defense intact. Since then, the overall rank of KC's "D" has slipped all the way to 29th. In comparison, the more respected Denver defense is rated 2nd of 32. I'm not buying that the turnover ratio for Kansas City (+8) continues to rise as well as the Broncos (-7) continues to fall. Remember, RB Jamaal Charles knows how to beat the Chiefs since he's played there most recently. In addition, the meaningful blueprints have already been laid by Oakland last week of how to attack the vulnerable red & gold secondary. This will also be the 8th consecutive week of play for KC so Denver is more fresher enjoying their bye week a few weeks back. The biggest thing we'll look @ today is sustaining drives. The Chiefs do convert 45.65 of the time on 3rd down but this Broncos' "D" should be respected having yielded just a 26.3% in that category. Denver is coming off a SU shutout loss & is clearly the more desperate team. In the numbers show that the Broncos have been stellar overall SU ATS in divisional road game since 2011 where they've won 15 of 19 SU & covered 14 of 19 ATS during that span. My bottom line says look for the Denver offense to play methodical football with less turnovers. They've won 5 of their last 6 trips to KC & may got caught looking ahead last week. Since coming to Kansas City, HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid is a no-show 1-9 ATS following Oakland but more importantly a perfect 0-7 ATS if @ home. Since 1990, following a SU favorite divisional shutout loss & then receiving 6 or more points the following week, NFL teams have covered 75% of the time (6-2). I feel this Denver "D" can neutralize rookie sensation RB Kareem Hunt & play aggressive "D" outside against playmaker WR Tyreek Hill. Look for the Chiefs to come down to earth (QB Alex Smith throws his 1st INT this season) here with this one turning Denver's way late. They've beaten their other 2 divisional rivals already. They get the trifecta tonight! Since we miraculously were hijacked from a 4-1 NFL Sunday, we won't make that same mistake (L.A. Chargers) of not buying @ -7 1/2. The new NFL key number may be 8 since there's an abundance of missed extra-points & missed 2-point conversions. Let's go to Arrowhead Stadium in Missouri to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to a strategic + 8 1/2 @ -135) as my 9 Star MNF Right Side! Sunday, October 29, 2017 Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-120 Los Angeles Chargers Pick Title: 9 Star Defensive Juggernaut Play Of The Week (LOSS) I feel it's a BIG MISTAKE right now to give a team MORE than a TD with a sac pack that's generated 23 sacks thus far good for being 4th in the league. Despite the results last week where the Patriots delivered a double-digit home win over the Falcons, I'm NOT labeling that as a legitimate win OVER a good team. Atlanta has played mediocre @ best under new OC Steve Sarkisian. Here's what we have to remember with this game. New England still has the 32nd-ranked defense & has allowed offenses 6-straight 300-yard passing days with the only exception being last week where they played picture-perfect. This game will be the 1st of 3 consecutive AFC West games for the Patriots who lost their 1st of 4 against that division to Kansas City 42-27 right here in Foxborough. My bottom line says DC Gus Bradley's 4-3 defensive scheme with mixing in a Cover-3 has created havoc. Yes, I expect QB Tom Brady to score some points @ home. However, I also feel the NE offensive line will struggle containing defensive rookie of the year DE Joey Bosa (7 1/2 sacks) & Melvin Ingram (team-leading 8 1/2 sacks) most of the afternoon. As long as their heads aren't swelling from their 21-0 shutout win over Denver last week, these Chargers take care of our ATS business here before their bye week next week. After extensive homework, in the numbers is where we build up some serious slack! For starters, there's the fact that L.A. has shown up as road dogs over the long haul going 23-11-1 ATS the past 5 seasons. Chargers' QB Philip Rivers has been a stellar 12-3 ATS (6-1 ATS if non-division) in his career when getting 6 or more points. The dagger for us has to be the Patriots being a perfect 0-12 ATS off an NFC game & being installed as a 7-point or more home favorite the following week. We're set & we're ready to invade Gillette Stadium in Foxborough to plat the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS as my 9 Star Defensive Juggernaut Play Of The Week! Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-110 Houston Texans Pick Title: 9 Star No Respect Up & Coming Roadie(WIN) While many prognosticators believe the Texans were dealt a serious blow to their playoff chances when J.J. Watt went down, I do not concur. Seattle won over a depleted New York Giants offense last week so the 24-7 score has aided our number this week. I also believe the blueprints to create mismatches were laid for a capable offense like Houston's by their intra-divisional rival Titans earlier in a 33-27 win in Nashville. The Seahawks 13th-ranked offense has played 3 patsies already in San Francisco, Indianapolis & the New York Giants. Taking that into account after 6 games, Seattle still averages a mediocre 22.5 PPG. I feel pushing that number over a TD gives us a tremendous advantage here. Indianapolis led these same Seahawks on this field 15-10 @ the half before HC Chuck Pagano did one of his many "no adjustments" @ halftime chalk board talks. My bottom line says Texans' rookie QB Deshaun Watson (15/5 TD/INT ratio & has a higher QBR 101.1 than Russell Wilson's 96.1) has been in pressure-cooker situations many times in his football career & has handled it well. Remember, the Seahawks are just 2-5-1 when their defense doesn't create a turnover their past 30 games. What I truly like is the fact that Watson has excelled in the red-zone as Houston ranks 3rd in the NFL with a 65% TD rate inside the 20. If HC Bill O'Brien's done his homework properly (see Tennessee-Seattle), then he should be able to stretch the Seattle "D" & create mismatches for his playmakers to keep drives alive. The Texans' "D" has also allowed less converted drives on 3rd down (34.6 to 37.3) than the Seahawks. The dagger says we'll take O'Brien & Co. since they've made the best of their bye weeks. Extra rest & study has done his team well going a perfect 3-0 SU thus far in that role in his tenure. Let's go to the 12th man @ Centurylink Field in Washington to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -150) as my 9 Star No Respect Up & Coming Roadie! Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-120 New York Jets Pick Title: 9 Star Missed Perception Play (WIN) They're still giving these Falcons that Super Bowl respect they earned LAST season. Guess what? It's NOT last season & they DON"T have Kyle Shanahan as OC! what a difference a year makes. It might be a little longer before the Dirty Birds grasp new OC Steve Sarkisian's system that was so-called not to change much. Well, the facts speak for themselves. The Falcons lost 3 in a row & has averaged under 14 PPG during that span. Now enter the surprisingly 3-4 New York Jets. QB Josh McCown comes into this one with a higher QBR (91.5 to 89.3) than Matt Ryan & has thrown 3 more TD passes (10 to 7) than him. I feel the chemistry between Ryan & WR Julio Jones (1 TD pass this season) has been disrupted. Even though Jones will probably get his 1,000 yards receiving this season, Atlanta's offensive numbers have not measured up. Ryan has thrown 6 Int's in 6 games. That's only 1 short of what he threw all of last season! The Falcons put up 7 points last week in a revenge game against the Patriots whose defense is currently ranked dead last (32nd) in the NFL entering this week. If that TD reversal call went the other way for the Jets in their only home loss of the season 2 weeks ago versus NE, New York would have identical 4-3 records with the Super Bowl champs. Many numbers point toward our side. Mt bottom line says the Jets are 4-0 ATS their past 4 home games. New York is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 October games. The daggers for us has to be the Dirty Birds being 7-14 SU versus the AFC the last 5 seasons as well as defending Super Bowl losers being a ticket-ripping 25-47-5 ATS as non-divisional favorites the next season. Make way to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford to play the NEW YORK JETS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -140) as my 9 Star Missed Perception Play! San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 13.0/-116 San Francisco 49ers Pick Title: 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (LOSS) All be the first to say that I endorse the Eagles as a NFC Championship finalist this season. However, this situation is a clear sandwich game between the rival Washington Redskins & the Denver Broncos who have the #2 defense in the NFL. It's interesting to see how well the (first time since 1979) 0-7 49ers' play off a blowout loss. Wait a minute! They were in this situation before. After getting beat up by Carolina 23-3 @ home on opening Sunday, San Francisco went up to play in a 12th man atmosphere & were just edged 12-9. This team doesn't seem to quit thus far. They also played the highest scoring offense in the NFL tough losing 41-39 SU on Thursday night Week 3 but more importantly getting the backdoor cover @ + 2 1/2! I'm looking for Philadelphia to be satisfied with a lead but giving way to 2nd half points which should give us the cover. Remember, both if these teams are rushing the ball @ identical 4.3 YPR. Many other numbers support us as well. The 49ers are under-valued 11-2 ATS when they travel facing a .500 avenging foe whose coming off a Monday night home game. In addition, 0-7 or worse SU teams playing a roadie have gone 39-16-1 ATS the past 37 seasons. With the weather supposedly looking sloppy being another edge to large dogs, add to that the Eagles being a perfect 0-4 ATS as favorites off Washington & just 1-5 ATS off a MNF home game. If the San Francisco plays dangerously loose like we predict, look for them to slide under the number & possibly surprise in Week 8. At any rate, we'll go to Lincoln Financial Field in Pa. to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to + 14 1/2 @ -166) as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -128 Buffalo Bills Pick Title: 9 Star Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) Sorry to Oakland fans, but last week's miracle comeback is NOT going to become the status quo for a team where chemistry has been disruptive more than not. Guys, without that 5th chance to pull out the win via penalty on the last play last week, we're talking about a 2-5 SU team making an east coast run & only a dog of 2? It just doesn't make sense! The Raiders currently rank 22nd on offense & 26th on defense entering the week & have a secondary that have NO INT's to their credit entering their 8th consecutive game. On the flip side of that coin, we have a Buffalo team that's generated 13 turnovers (best in the NFL) & have a QB in Tyrod Taylor that isn't flashy but still has a very good 7/2 TD/INT ratio. Taylor & RB LeSean "Shady" McCoy are fresh off their bye week 2 weeks ago & should be able to exploit a weak Oakland secondary this afternoon. My bottom line says the Bills are more of a proven commodity earning hard-fought wins against Denver & Atlanta thus far. No this game isn't as important as that previous 1990 AFC Title game 51-3 Buffalo blowout, but it's pivotal to a Bills' squad in turning the corner toward a badly-needed playoff birth. The Bills remain the NFL team with the longest playoff drought (17 years) entering the season. It's last playoff game was back in 1999 AFC wild card round when they were victimized by the "Motor City Miracle" in a 22-16 loss. In the last 15 seconds, Titans' Kevin Dyson scored on a 75-yard kickoff return via a lateral from Frank Wycheck. The home team has taken the last 4 games in this series & we'll call the card once again. I believe there will be more matchup problems for the Raiders' "D" here. Let's make way to New Era Field (Still like Ralph Wilson Stadium name better) in Orchard Park to play the BUFFALO BILLS as my 9 Star Headline Moneyliner! NOTES: What a week! Denver's QB Trevor Siemian couldn't get out of his own way with turnovers yet again! As our old HS basketball coach Ed Gayeski would say, "Trevor, sit on the bench"! They controlled every important category except one. they rushed for 177 yards & didn't cover the 8 1/2? I was disheartened when we had that strategic advantage +7 1/2 with the Chargers only to see them miss a conversion PAT & lose by 8! I was also expected a 49ers back-door cover which was status quo for most of the year. That even fell short of the mark. Well' it's fun time November for us now & tconsistent L's by the mushes will start coming out like trick or treater's on Halloween! Get ready as we turn the corner on a banner season in the NFL! My 2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record is: 24-21-----53%


 
 
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