When Is it Time to 'Fade' the Golden State Warriors?

By: Brandon Shively     Date: Jan 9, 2015

While the Golden State Warriors are looking like the best team in the NBA and are almost unbeatable at home, they will be going on the road soon and I think there will be multiple times to fade them. On Friday (1/16), they have to travel to play @ Oklahoma City where the Thunder will be looking to get revenge from a 117-91 loss they just took on January 5th when they shot only 30.6% from the floor. They then will have to play on a back-to-back that Saturday night @ Houston. The Rockets will be playing with double revenge on their mind from two earlier season losses to the Warriors, and I think that we should see a favorable line in both of these games. Let's look to take Oklahoma City on 1/16 and Houston on 1/17 as I think the Warriors will be overvalued and the Thunder and the Rockets will have the big motivational edge here. Beginning on February 3rd, Golden State will play 11 of their next 13 games on the road. It will be a very tough stretch for them as they will be playing in (4) back-to-back sets. On Saturday, February 7th, Golden State plays @ N.Y. Knicks in what will be their 4th game in 5 nights. The Knicks will be a double digit home dog and I think that this is a game where we should look to fade Golden State. Of these 11 road games that they are playing in a 20 day stretch, it looks like they will be a road favorite in at least 8 of them. While they will be playing some weaker teams (Philly, Minnesota, Knicks, and the Pacers), I think that we should continue to see some favorable lines for the homedogs. On Thursday 2/26 the Warriors have to play @ Cleveland and I expect Lebron to be playing and I expect Cleveland to be much better than they are right now. This is another time I WILL be looking to fade Golden State. Then the following night on 2/27 they have to travel to Toronto to play their 3rd road game in 4 nights and this is never easy to do, especially traveling to Toronto. The Raptors will also have revenge on their mind and should have Derozan back in the lineup. In closing, while Golden State has been a great bet this season, I do think they will cool off and the linesmakers have had to adjust the lines so much, that we can now start to get value with the opposing team. I expect the Warriors to slip on this brutal road trip and I will be looking to 'Play against' them more times than not in the upcoming weeks.

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