The Concept of Value

By: TJ Masterline     Date: Jan 26, 2015


Today let’s examine one of the least understood concepts for new sports bettor is the concept of value. That's understandable, as many veteran bettors have trouble with the notion, as well.

Placing a bet because it offers good value does not necessarily mean you believe the team you're wagering on is going to win that particular game, especially when you're betting on an underdog on the money line. If a team is +200 and you believe they will win 40 percent of the time, you have a good wager, even though you believe the team will lose more often than they will win. In our example above, if the team we take at +200 wins eight games out of twenty, we'll show a decent profit. If we wager $100 to win $200, we will lose $100 twelve of the twenty times, but win $200 the other eight times, which will leave us with an overall profit of $400.

The same premise works in sports handicapping when betting the money line. It doesn't necessarily have to be an underdog, either. If a good baseball team with its best pitcher is throwing against a weak team with a poor pitcher, we may see the favorite at -300. If your handicapping shows the favorite will win eight out of ten times, you will have a reasonable wager, as you will win $100 eight out of ten times and lose $300 the other two times, which will still leave a profit of $200. So, on any given day, often the first thing I search for is a game with a good value play on it. Good Luck!

T.J. Masterline of 10StarPicks.com


 
 
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