AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Preview

By: Doc's Sports     Date: Feb 11, 2015

We were able to cash with Jason Day last week at the Farmers as he won in a playoff. The PGA Tour remains in California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of three host courses for the event along with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. A traditional playing cut of the top 60 and ties will be made after 54 holes on Saturday giving players one extra day to make a move.

Although the Shore Course will play as a par 70 for the tournament, it will likely again replicate Poppy Hills in being the course where competitors feel they should post their best score of the week as it is the second shortest course on tour. Four years ago the field was cut from 180 to 156 players to help alleviate snails pace of some of the rounds. Some foursomes took over six hours to complete their rounds and the lesser field has helped alleviate some of that the last three years.

Pebble Beach is one of the players favorite stops on tour and for good reason. But it comes with a price. Hitting greens is essential to provide birdie opportunities and scoring on the par fives is also crucial. Experience has played a big role in this event for a good track record will take precedence over those who have not played much or played well here in the past. Current strong form is also valuable as four of the last five winners have had a top five finish in one of their previous two starts.

Brandt Snedeker (+2,100) has gotten off to a solid start this season with four top tens and is coming off a T19 last week. He doesn't fit the criteria of having a top five but his win here two years ago trumps that. He missed the cut last year but was coming back from a knee injury. Playing the small Pebble greens suits him just fine as solid putters tend to thrive those two days and that is what he is known for.

Nick Watney (+3,000) feels at home here being a northern California native. He finished T7 at the Farmers, his second top 15 in the state so far this year. He last won in 2012 when he finished fourth in the FedEx Standings but he has the game to break through. He has missed the cut here the last two years but he came in not playing as well as he is now and his T6 here in 2011 followed a T5 in his previous start.

Chris Kirk (+3,000) has been off the radar as he has not done anything special but remains extremely consistent. He has yet to miss a cut and is currently 34th in the FedEx Standings. He placed T61 here last year but that was after taking three weeks off. He played last week at the Farmers and back in 2013 when he finished solo second here, he was coming off a start the previous week.

Spencer Levin (+7,000) certainly isn't a big name and because of that, we get some big odds. He battled some injuries a couple years back and he is coming off a T11 last week which is no surprise. He won the 2004 California Amateur at Pebble and his record at the Farmers and AT&T (both possess Poa annua greens) is solid. In nine starts at the two events, he has 4 top 20's including a T4 and a T9 here.

We used Aaron Baddeley (+7,500) as our longshot here last year and he disappointed with a Sunday 78 to finish T56. He missed the cut last week at the Farmers but slow starts have been the norm for him in the past, until he gets here. He finished T6 in 2011, solo fourth in 2012 and T12 in 2013 and those were all after average finishes. He could be in line for his first win since 2011 at the Northern Trust.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - All for 1 Unit

Brandt Snedeker (+2,100)
Nick Watney (+3,000)
Chris Kirk (+3,000)
Spencer Levin (+7,000)
Aaron Baddeley (+7,500)

2015 Record to date after 4 event: +22.5 Units

Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Humana Challenge +24 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open +8.5 Units

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