Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 9 Analysis & Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 8, 2017


MNF Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 8:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -124 Detroit Lions Pick Title: 9 Star MNF Smart Play Wake-Up Call (WIN) This has been a horrendous week where the mushes reigned king as a majority of obvious teams covered the number. Tonight, QB Matthew Stafford is being put in a game versus a mediocre @ best Packers' squad minus Aaron Rodgers. He should earn his salary for beating the so-called beatable teams on the schedule. There's seriously NO EXCUSE for HC Jim Caldwell & OC Jim Bob Cooter not to succeed with a master game plan to exploit all the holes left by Green Bay for this one. Detroit is in a situation they CAN handle. Forget that 1 win SU in 26 chances @ Lambeau. That's a bunch of crap since QB Hundley will try to force things to happen & make rookie mistakes! Look for us to sweep our NFL-NHL combo & right our ship QUICKLY! Going up to Wisconsin among all the Cheeseheads to buck the home squad with the DETROIT LIONS as my 9 Star MNF Smart Play Wake-Up call! Sunday, November 05, 2017 Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-115 Denver Broncos Pick Title: Mike's 9 Star Earlybird NFL Chalkboard Right Side (LOSS) This 7-1 Philadelphia team has really been turning some heads under the direction of sophomore phenom & former North Dakota State Bison QB Carson Wentz (19/5 TD/INT ratio & a 101.6 QBR). Yes, it APPEARS things are shaping up for a 3rd consecutive blowout with the Broncos inserting backup QB & former journeyman Brock Osweiler, having to travel on a shorter week & facing a difficult 3rd consecutive game away from their altitude advantage. I also give kudos to Philadelphia for acquiring Pro-Bowl RB Jay Ajayi from the Dolphins just under the trade deadline on Tuesday. Let's NOT jump the gun though. He'll definitely help an Eagles' ground game averaging just 3.7 YPC their last 4 games AFTER he learns their system. Remember, Philly faces the 2nd best run defense (next to themselves) in Denver (yield 3.0 YPC) that's already held Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott to 8 yards on 9 carries as well as the Bills' LeSean "Shady" McCoy to 21 yards rushing on 14 carries. Now that key cog LT Jason Peters is lost as a result of torn anterior AND medial collateral ligaments in the Washington game, once again forced into his role will be 2nd-year man Halapoulivaati Vaitai. My bottom line says Vaitai & RT Lane Johnson make up the tackles on the front line that must now line up against the hottest SLB in the league - 7th year-man out of Texas A&M Von Miller. What's Miller done this year? He has a team-high 7 sacks along with having 42 total QB pressures (sacks+hits+hurries). Miller should get a boost from WLB Shane Ray (should be @ 100% after returning from injury) as well as LB Shaquil Barrett in certain situations. Wentz has already been sacked 22 times & that was with a healthier front line. This season, the Broncos have NOT allowed a rushing TD while C.J. Anderson & Co. have rushed for 4. On the flip side of the coin, the Denver offense led by Osweiler could get a boost of WR Emmanuel Sanders gets back in the lineup to take burden away from leading wideout Demaryius Thomas (455 receiving yards). Even off a short week, they take on a 9 straight game Philadelphia team who take their bye week after this affair. In the numbers says we have a real rarity with this being the 2nd time in 22 years these 2 have met in Philly with the Eagles leading this series @ 7-5-1 dating back to 1971. For this one, the Philadelphia defense also must be given their due since they've limited opponents to 2.4 YPC on 1st down the past 6 games. Even though the Eagles "D" ranks 29th in passing yards allowed (26th overall), they've turned in an NFL-best 6 third-down INT's of which LCB Jalen Mills has 3 of them. I feel Philly makes some noise early in this one (they've out-scored opponents 47-9 in 1st quarter). However, I look for the visiting 3-4 Broncos to make things difficult here (Eagles' lone loss was versus another AFC West team in KC) with their backs against the wall in a must-win game. DC Joe Woods will have his 3-4 alignment set to take away playmaker TE Zach Ertz & let Wentz try to find the rest before pressure collapses. If Denver can stay away from a freakish 5 TO game like last week (only lost by 10), we should slide under this generous number. Let's go to Lincoln Financial Field to play the DENVER BRONCOS as my 9 Star Earlybird NFL Chalk Board Right Side! Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -269 Houston Texans Pick Title: 9 Star Missed Perception Play Of The Week (LOSS) Let's not over-react here! Yep, we're talking to the mushes. This is still the Texans who have had success in intra-divisional play (15-5 SU) under HC Bill O'Brien. Yes, Tom Savage has had rough days in the past. However, that wasn't up against the 31st-ranked defense who is minus their 3 best defensive playmakers, ROLB John Simon, LCB Rashaan Melvin & their 1st-round draft pick out of Ohio State in S Malik Hooker. Being a Colts' fan has been brutal for me. There's not too much to look forward to when your defensive playmakers are out combined with having a Luck-less offense with an O-Line (14 sacks the past 2) that's last in sacks yielded. Asking Indianapolis to play back-to-back road games competitively is simply unrealistic. Now they take on a Texans' "D" that just limited Seattle to 33 rushing yards on 21 attempts. On the flip side of the coin, Houston's offensive playmakers should shine with WR DeAndre Hopkins (team-leading 45 catches for 606 receiving yards & 7 TD's) & rookie out of Notre Dame WR Will Fuller V (13 receptions for 279 receiving yards & 7 TD's). In the numbers tells us that the Texans are an off-the-charts 17-2 ATS versus sub-.500 divisional teams who are coming off a road game. Now OLT Duane Brown is back off his holdout which sweetens the pot for leading rusher Lamar Miller (119 carries for 426 rushing yards & 2 TD's). My bottom line says the Colts kick too many FG's & have failed miserably in the red zone going 3-for-13 their last 4 games. The dagger for us has to be the only teams that Indy has beaten sit winless coming into Week 9. Let's go to NRG Stadium to get another "W" on the HOUSTON TEXANS as my 9 Star Missed Perception Play Of The Week! Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-110 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick Title: 9 Star Throw The Stats Out Divisional War Play (LOSS) For this pick we're not doubting how efficient the Saints' offense is under 17th-year veteran QB Drew Brees (11/4 TD/INT ratio, 70.6% completions, 1,951 passing yards, sacked just 7 times & a 101.7 QBR). However, trumping that production is a Tampa Bay team who now has RB Doug Martin back off suspension for more than a week on an offense that ranks 4th in total offense & 2nd in passing offense next to New England. For those with short memories, these Buccaneers (2-5 thus far) were just 3-5 SU last season when HC Dirk Koetter's team went on a 5-game winning streak. New Orleans reminds me of an over-achieving Buffalo team who like the saints came into this week 5-2. They lost to a more-desperate team in their division. I look for similar things to happen here. Remember, this has been a very closely-contested series the past 3 seasons. In their past 6 meetings, NOBODY has won by more than a TD! My bottom line says the odds-makers know that Tampa Bay haven't covered since their opening game versus Chicago. We realize that ALL 7 Saints' games have been decided by 8 or more. But don't expect that stat to last over a longer haul. There's too much parity in the NFL these days to carry out such freakish margins. Whether it's QB's Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick, the desperate Bucs will turn this into a blow-for-blow war by games end. let's go to Mercedes-Benz Superdome to play the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ the strategic + 8 1/2 @ -150 as my 9 Star Throw The Stats Out Divisional War Play! Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-102 Cincinnati Bengals Pick Title: 9 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (LOSS) Wow, it certainly seems obvious that the Jacksonville (or some called them Sack-sonville) "D" is set up again to make record-setting sacks in the backfield against Andy "Red Rifle" Dalton (11/8 TD/INT ratio & a 87 QBR). Wait a minute! Isn't this the same Jaguars team that hasn't won back-to-back games ONCE this season? Yes it is! Coming off their bye week says they should produce another "W". However, we're NOT talking W's here, we're talking ATS. That's a complete different element. You see, the Bengals are just 3-4 SU & have been in only 3 games decided by a TD. However, those games have ALL been between them & a divisional rival. What's been the winning margins in their 4 non-divisional games? They've been decided by 4, 3 in OT, 4 & 1 collectively. That's an outcome average of just 3 PPG. Dalton has woke up in games @ green bay & Cleveland by posting 124 &146 QB ratings. My bottom line says that Jax is in a unfamiliar role (in contention in November) with a strange mystery/liability type QB in Blake Bortles (9/5 TD/INT ratio & just a 85.4 QBR) & a good RB in rookie speedster out of L.S.U. Leonard Fournette (596 rushing yards, 4.6 YPC & 6 TD's). We simply don't know how effective Fournette will be coming off his ankle injury. past results tell us that the Jaguars are just 7-18 ATS as a home favorite the past 10 seasons. The dagger for us has to be what Cincinnati brings to the table with their "A" game. With Jacksonville just 1-5 SU & ATS their past 6 favorite roles & 1-2 SU @ home this season, this teams turns IFFY when we're talking laying MORE than a TD with a rushing defense that's ranked 32nd! That's exactly where we're going! Let's go to Everbank Field to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -162) as my 9 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -133 Atlanta Falcons Pick Title: 8 Star NFC South Donnybrook Survivor (LOSS) Yes, we already know the Carolina Panthers "D" has performed well & has earned their 2nd ranking @ the halfway point of the season. But it's been more than a roller coaster ride for QB Cam Newton (10/11 TD/INT ratio & a 79.1 QBR) & the offense who failed miserably (34-13) against like-opponent New Orleans @ this venue this season. The Panthers are just 1-2 @ this venue & those 2 losses were against teams that could score in NO & Philadelphia. The Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde personality of Cam Newton (6 picks the last 3 games) is as unpredictable as his TD/INT ratio. The facts remain that Newton has been sacked 22 times thus far & has coughed it up 5 times (luckily lost 1) on drop-backs. His offense is clearly one-dimensional (Cam leads the team in rushing TD's with 3 out of total of 4) & has just traded away their leading receiver Kelvin Benjamin (32 catches for 475 receiving yards & 2 TD's) to the Bills this week. I believe this chemistry-changer tells me that Carolina is content with hitting rookie & 8th pick in the draft RB Christian McCaffrey (from Stanford) out of the backfield & 3rd-year man out of Michigan WR Devin Funchess who've caught 5 TD's collectively the 1st 8 games. My bottom line says that OC Steve Sarkisian is NO Kyle Shanahan. However, he's blessed with enough offensive playmakers with WR's Julio Jones & Mohamed Sanu for QB Matt Ryan to exploit. Ryan's been GOLD versus the NFC winning his last 10 games SU! The daggers for us have to be Carolina having to still use backup C Tyler Larsen (for injured Ryan Kalil) as well as the Falcons being a perfect 3-0 SU versus the NFC this season. Remember, Cam & Co. are a perfect 0-5 in divisional play when taking on an opponent coming off a non-divisional game. I feel the Panthers being 23rd in scoring with a 18.5 PPG average is going to be tough to overcome against a legitimate contender. Let's go to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the ATLANTA FALCONS as my 8 Star NFC South Donnybrook Survivor! NOTES: Still can't figure out how Houston couldn't move the ball against the worst defense in the league! I guess Tom Savage is really that bad! We had a RARE Earlybird loss & a stunner as Denver's #2 defense acted like they could'nt figure out what Philly was doing. Vance Joseph may be in year 1 but quickly will be on the hot seat if he doesn't make adjustments. It was another rare mushes' week as the obvious cashed many tickets with line value hardly coming into play. We've tweaked & adjusted for MNF & this should keep rolling for us this week! Let's turn the corner BIG this coming week 10 & never look back! 2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 25-26-------49%??


 
 
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