Mike Handzelek's CFB National Championship Games Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Jan 9, 2018


Monday, January 08, 2018 Alabama vs. Georgia (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -175 Alabama Pick Title: Mike's 9 Star National Championship Reeler Dealer (WIN) There's tons of film reels we dissected leading up to this game. HC Kirby Smart (grabbed quickly by the Junkyard Dawgs' in 2016 after serving as Alabama's DC under Saban) & Georgia have a bruising running game featuring a BIG dose of Nick Chubb & Sony Michel with a SMALL dose of D'Andre Swift (out of St. Joseph's Prep in Philadelphia). They have an upstart Freshman QB in Jake Fromm (whose been successful since appearing in the Little League World Series in Williamsport) who plays more like a junior in maturity since taking over for the injured Sophomore signal-caller Jacob Eason. HC Nick Saban has enormous talent that was proven in decisively winning the chess match last week with Clemson HC Dabo Swinney. Georgia DC Mel Tucker (was DC in the NFL with Cleveland, Jacksonville & Chicago) will employ a 3-4 alignment in hopes to pressure on Bama' QB Jalen Hurts & hold RB's Damien Harris & Bo Scarbrough. WR Calvin Ridley will be Hurts' bread & butter that will be used in different sets as OC Brian Daboll's formations stretch the field. Fatigue will be BIG during the second half & playing extra time (on the field for 81 snaps versus the Sooners) & the west coast to east coast travel by the Dawgs' clearly shows that the Crimson Tide is the fresher side. My bottom line says Alabama is playing in their 6th National Championship this decade. The average point differential in those 5 games (Texas, L.S.U., Notre Dame & Clemson twice) was the Crimson Tide winning by 13+ points. Another MAJOR factor is how well Alabama has fared on the road. Over the last 3 seasons, the Tide has gone 20-2 SU! In the numbers look @ how HC Nick Saban has done against his former assistants. He's 11-0 SU collectively beating Derek Dooley 3 times, Jim McElwain 3 times, Will Muschamp twice, Mark Dantonio twice & Jimbo Fisher once. I further feel this matchup suits Alabama much better than it would if they would playing Oklahoma. A QB that could stretch the field (Baker Mayfield as well as DeShaun Watson last year) would be much more dangerous than a QB like Jake Fromm. Bama's secondary is athletic. DC Jeremy Pruitt will force the issue with his DB's more than not & force Fromm to throw into tight coverages which plays right into their strengths. The turnover differential shows another edge to the Crimson Tide +13 to +5. The blueprints to beat Georgia were laid last week by Oklahoma. Look for Bama' to take the lead (they simple DON'T beat themselves) after that BIG adrenalin rush by the Bulldogs @ the beginning. Let's go to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (home of the Falcons) to play the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE as my 9 Star National Championship Reeler Dealer! Saturday, January 06, 2018 North Dakota State vs. James Madison (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -185 North Dakota State Pick Title: 9 Star Public Missed Perception Play Of The Weekend (WIN) You think this No.1 versus No. 2 matchup between these FCS playoff teams would be pretty common. But if you dig a little deeper, you'll find this game represents the first time since 2011 (where these playoffs expanded to 24-teams) that the 2 top seeds face each other. When we focus on public bettors, we find that many mushes are concentrating on how BIG the Dukes' blowouts have been throughout the season & for the playoffs. Yes, James Madison is a talented team who rank #1 defensively in the FCS, have an excellent turnover margin & have high success in the red zone. Kudos must be given to Senior QB Bryan Schor who boasts a 29-3 SU career record coming in - including a current streak of 26-0 SU. Things really seem to be going well for their HC where Mike Houston who just signed a 10-year contract extension with the Dukes last month. However, I believe looming larger than all those facts points to the Bison being on a major mission to redeem themselves from a last season playoff loss @ the hands of James Madison, 27-17. This is still the same North Dakota State team that won a record 33 consecutive games between 2014-16, won 4 championships in a row & play lights-out every game in their Fargodome. Another important fact that MANY don't know is that the WHOLE front 7 of the Bison' "D" didn't play in last seasons' playoff loss to JMU! I don't expect this D" gets burned late like last season. Look for DT Nate Tanguay to be a presence on the line of scrimmage & LB Nick Deluca to plug the middle where JMU has had success. There's no doubt this game will be won in the trenches which is where I feel the Bison will make BETTER halftime adjustments to get the job done. I also feel HC Chris Klieman (4th season) has done excellent since coming to Fargo where he's rung up a current 53-6 SU record. As the 2014 season began, Klieman came in losing his QB along with 30 seniors. He then groomed a new signal-caller in Carson Wentz (Eagles' QB) to lead North Dakota State to a 15-1 SU record & a FCS National Championship (4th in a row) 29-27 win over the Illinois State Redbirds. My bottom line says that Klieman is working his magic again with Junior QB Easton Stick (played for Cathedral Prep HS in Omaha, NE) who's a solid 33-3 SU a starter. He has an excellent RB in Chase Murdock & TE Connor Wentz (Carson's brother) to keep the sticks moving for the Missouri Valley Conference Champions. Let's go to Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX for the NCAA Division I FCS Championship to play the NORTH DAKOTA STATE BISON as my 9 Star Public Missed Perception Play Of The Weekend! NOTES: Georgia put up a fight to the end before succumbing in OT. It was tough seeing Kicker Andy Pappanastos miss that potentially-winning, mid-range FG @ the end of regulation. However, HC Nick Saban pulled a brilliant chess move not too many expected. After QB Jalen Hurts failed to get the job done in the 1st half, he went to the bench & brought out True Freshman Tua Tagovailoa (played in 7 regular season games & ended this season with a nice 11/2 TD/INT ratio) to spark some offense. Even though he made a few mistakes, he moved the team & successfully played catch-up in the 4th quarter that forced a 2nd straight OT game for Georgia. The Bulldogs did out-possession Bama' by over 6 minutes. However, the Crimson Tide did out-rush the bevy of Junkyard Dogs' running backs to the tune of 184-137. After Georgia grabbed the lead 23-20 on an OT FG, the Dawgs sacked Tagovailoa for a huge 16-yard loss taking them out of FG range. How did Saban's true freshman respond? He found WR Devonta Smith (lone catch for the game) getting behind the secondary breaking free down the left sideline for a 41-yard TD reception. As a result, we saw Saban & Alabama hoist up their 5th National Championship trophy this decade. SIDE NOTE: It was ironic to see Georgia Sophomore WR Riley Ridley (14 catches all year) grabbing 6 receptions for 82 yards to out-distance his brother Calvin for Bama' that had 4 catches for 32. At any rate, it was super nice to bag both Division I championships as I pinpointed the FCS winner as North Dakota State executed revenge over James Madison on Saturday with a 17-13 win. Even though this was a mediocre CFB season overall for me, we more than made up for it by winning GOY's & bagging 75% for the bowls. Be back this weekend for the NFL Divisional Round as we continue that surreal 30-8 run. Thanks to ALL subscribers & followers for their support & faith. My 2017-18 CFB Overall Bowl Record: 6-2----75%---- "Smiling Cobra" Bowl Selections: 3-0----100%---- Last 13 CFB Selections: 11-2----85%---- 2017-18 CFB Overall Record: 57-51----53%


 
 
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