By Tony George
Sometimes in gambling sports, it is what you DON'T Do that counts. Monday Night Football tonight offers little value in my opinion on the Las Vegas Line offered. Off a 9-0 Sweep the last 2 Sundays with Premium and teaser Plays and cashing both my free plays in the NFL over the past 2 weekends as well, I am in sync in the NFL. My 2 team 6 Point Teaser plays are 6-1 in the NFL this year, cashing both Denver and San Diego yesterday in a Teaser where I teased both those teams through the Key numbers of 6 and 7 to get VALUE out of a line. Many think Teasers are an exotic wager that bears little fruit, I have to strongly disagree, since you are handicapping and betting numbers, not games. I am not forcing a play here as a handicapper just to sell a play even though I am hot and could sell a ton of plays on this game, but I will offer up some sound advice on it.
Tonight's Detroit @ Seattle game has a 1-2 team laying double digits in the NFL. As an 0-2 team last week Seattle laid 15 points to the Bears and covered the number. I cannot articulate enough that a double digit spread in the NFL is a TON of points and I rarely if at all will ever lay double digits. One thing a recreational sports bettor will do is solely base a bet based on what they saw last week. Detroit looked bad getting hammered by Denver at home on Sunday Night and Seattle destroyed a bad Bears team with Claussen at QB for them in that game. Overreaction to what you saw has broken many a bankroll gents.
The VALUE in betting this game is manipulating this line, Side and Total, in a same game 2 team teaser to get some decent numbers to work with. The biggest concern I have is which way to tease the Side. Do you tease Seattle down to -4 versus -10 , or tease the Lions up through 13 and 14, key numbers on the high side. You have the 2 starting running backs out, Bell for Detroit and Lynch for Seattle. That is a bigger advantage for Detroit as Ameer Abdullah is damn near a starter for Detroit anyway, and the rookie out of Nebraska has impressed early. Seattle's options after Lynch are limited and he is the key to their offense.
Going on the Totals Play side of the equation, with 2 key components out of both offenses, and Seattle having the third ranked defense in the NFL, and they are beasts at home, you can expect a solid defensive effort and a clock eating offensive scheme for Seattle. Detroit's offense has managed just 28 points total in their last 2 games. Seattle does not have an explosive offense by any stretch.
For all these reasons I see an iffy SU wager on either Side or Total tonight as there are a lot of intangibles in this game, and Detroit will pull out all the stops and try and salvage a season here. I suggest the following teaser on a very tricky game and suggest no more than 1 Unit on it.
Tease Detroit to +16 and tease the Total up to 49 and take the UNDER